Recent developments in Sudan have significant implications for Libya, according to Italian expert Guido Lenfranqui. The armed crisis in Sudan was expected given the precarious balance between the military formations. There is a danger that regional tensions could escalate and worsen the situation. Lenfranqui, a researcher specializing in African affairs at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, Clingendael, said that clashes in Sudan these days are the result of ongoing competition that has escalated in recent months.
He added that the challenge of competition for control of the country between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces aims to ensure security for its system. Lenfranqui pointed out that Sudan found itself in a special situation, where there are in fact two separate armed forces with separate leadership structures and different political and economic interests.
The Italian expert added that after the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, both the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces put their differences aside to protect their common interests. The real transition to democracy in Sudan was possible to condemn the leaders of both forces for violence against the population and seize assets that accumulated on both sides by their illegal participation in the country’s economy. This is why both parties had an interest in obstructing this transition.
He noted that the Sudanese army does not tolerate the presence of parallel military structures that enjoy their independent military, political, and economic strength, while the Rapid Support Forces have no intention of relinquishing their power and submitting to the control of statutory military forces. Lenfranqui considered that if one faction wins over the other, it may impose itself and rule the country. However, achieving a clear victory for one of the forces over the other throughout the country is extremely difficult, according to the site.