An analytical report by the US-based Stimson Center discussed what it called “a dose of reality” regarding Libya’s “false unity.” The report highlights what optimistic political discourse conceals. It points to the reality of sharp division and competing power centers.
The report explains this illusion masks deep divisions. It also hides competing power centers and a decade of failed state-building. For years, Libya was treated as a state needing just one more election or agreement to reunite. The report stressed that a harsher reality lies behind the optimistic rhetoric. This reality consists of competing quasi-states, fiefdoms, and armed militias. It also includes hollowed-out institutions. Laws, currencies, and basic freedoms vary across different regions. This creates a separate reality for Libyans.
According to the report, understanding this fragmented landscape is key to breaking the illusion of a unified state. The idea of “one Libya” has long persisted. However, it has hidden power systems that thrive on division. The report considers a decentralized or federal framework the only realistic path to stability. It described the country’s path to democracy as a “tragic comedy” of illusions and missed opportunities. Libya has been effectively divided since 2014 into two quasi-states. One is in the west, and the other is in the east and south. Each has its own treasury, ministries, and taxes. Laws issued in Tripoli mean nothing in the east, and vice versa.
The report stated that national institutions were the first victims of fragmentation. This includes the Central Bank. It emphasized that foreign politicians and diplomats continue to chant slogans of “unity” despite the reality on the ground. Eastern elites have consolidated their mini-state. Meanwhile, leaders in the west negotiate through militia intermediaries. Neither side is willing to relinquish control. The report stressed that imposing “winner-take-all” plans caused all settlements to collapse. Factions will move to protect their influence when they feel threatened.
Acknowledging the division is not surrender, the report noted. Instead, it is a starting point for practical solutions. These solutions are based on effective local councils and strengthened police. They also involve building new institutions from scratch. Proposals for federalism or dividing Libya into its historical provinces reflect the reality of the divisions. Governing the country decentrally may be better than pursuing the illusion of central unity. The report concluded that Libya needs realistic solutions for functional institutions instead of repeating overly optimistic plans.