Libyan political analyst Hussam Al-Abdali said. Libya’s political scene remains in a vicious cycle. This has been the case since the failure of the scheduled elections on December 24, 2021. All paths are now blocked. There is an absence of real solutions to the crisis. Al-Abdali made these remarks to Sputnik Agency.
Al-Abdali clarified that current political bodies appear satisfied with the status quo. These include the House of Representatives and the High Council of State. The current situation guarantees their continuation in power. It also preserves their privileges. These benefits include high salaries, political immunity, expenses, and other advantages. These benefits extend to them and their children.
He stated that the international community and major powers show no real urgency. They are not pushing to resolve the Libyan crisis. This is because the current situation poses no direct threat to their regional or international interests. This applies to the Mediterranean Sea. It also applies to neighboring countries and major powers.
He pointed out that these countries do not want a strong Libyan state. Such a state might threaten their security. Nor do they want a weak state. A weak state could become a breeding ground for terrorist groups and armed gangs. He believes that the current state of temporary relative stability serves their interests.
Al-Abdali indicated that Libya is not among the international community’s priorities at this stage. The world is preoccupied with several other crises and conflicts. These include the war in Sudan and Middle East tensions over the past year. The Yemeni crisis and other issues also hold greater priority.
Al-Abdali addressed the role of the United Nations mission. He explained that it launched what was known as the “Structured Dialogue” recently. This dialogue took place on December 10. Approximately 124 members participated. The stated goal was to pave the way for a government. This government would lead the country towards elections. However, the UN mission surprised participants. It announced that the dialogue’s outcomes would be non-binding.
Al-Abdali believes this development empties the Structured Dialogue of its content. It makes it similar to the Advisory Committee’s experience, known as the “Committee of Twenty.” That committee submitted proposals and recommendations that were not adhered to. He questioned if this development resulted from a misjudgment by the mission’s leadership. He ruled out that possibility. He suggested that a strong international party intervened. This party obstructed the Structured Dialogue for multiple reasons.
He added that this conclusion is supported by statements from UN envoy Hannah Tetteh. Recent international movements also support it. He suggested that this international party has a different vision for a solution. This might rely on understanding between specific parties. These include military factions in the east and west. It also involves the Government of National Unity led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. The Libyan National Army’s General Command is also involved. The UN envoy indicated in her Security Council briefing that an alternative plan exists. This plan would be used if Libyan political parties fail to reach a solution. This plan is expected to be presented in an upcoming briefing in February.
Al-Abdali believes the UN mission decided to postpone the Structured Dialogue’s outcomes until February. This suggests the next phase might see different voices and approaches. It could result in a new constituent council. This council would replace the House of Representatives and the High Council of State, after their dissolution. A new government would emerge from it. In this context, he suggested America is the most influential international party in this process. He believes the US could push for a solution relatively quickly.
On another note, Al-Abdali discussed the cabinet reshuffles. The Government of National Unity recently announced its intention to carry these out. He considers these attempts to politically extend the government’s lifespan. He referred to previous statements by Minister of State for Communication and Political Affairs, Walid Al-Lafi. Al-Lafi had spoken about announcing new ministers before the end of the last year. This did not happen by year-end.
He explained that the non-announcement of these changes might relate to UN mission statements. The mission stated it was not informed of any cabinet adjustments. He views this as an implicit indicator of the mission’s disapproval. It signals disapproval of the Government of National Unity’s steps at this time. This is especially true given the ongoing Structured Dialogue. He believes these movements are merely political maneuvers. He affirmed that the unity government is sacrificing Libyans’ future. It is doing so to maintain its hold on power.
Al-Abdali added that the country’s economic situation is worsening. The political situation is deteriorating even further. The government is unable to implement real economic reforms. It cannot halt the decline in the Libyan currency’s value. Nor can it achieve political unification for the country. He pointed to unannounced communications and contacts. These are between the Government of National Unity and parties in eastern Libya. They involve files related to oil companies and financial sharing. He accused both parties of corruption. He asserted that their shared interest is prioritizing private gain over public interest.
Al-Abdali believes the continued political stagnation reflects a lack of seriousness from international parties. They are not serious about making real change in Libya. He explained that Libyans are now awaiting the outcomes of February. They are also waiting for the alternative plan mentioned by the UN mission. They await the results of the international party’s intervention. This party has entered the crisis. They want to know if it will succeed in dialogue with what he called “clinically dead political bodies.” Or will the deadlock continue?